The 6-month rally in equity markets is likely to lose momentum or even reverse if recessionary risks materialise later in 2023. Corporate earnings are likely to remain under pressure in an environment still hampered by low growth and persistent inflation. Lifted by a six month rally, current valuation s are not very attractive and do not fully reflect recession and financial instability risks. A defensive bias remains appropriate.
Macro The ECB enters uncharted territory
Compulsive and continuous interest rate hikes could give way to a long period of inaction.
Macro The focus is shifting to Frankfurt
Despite persisting inflation, weaker economic conditions should prompt the ECB to adopt a cautious stance.
Macro Neither too hot nor too cold (for now)
Recent mixed indicators are still compatible with a “soft landing” for the US economy.
Macro Powell preaches careful austerity
Western central bankers seem prepared to sacrifice more growth to restore price stability.
Macro Bears make a comeback in August
The continued strength of the U.S. economy is fueling a sustained “bear steepening” of the dollar yield curve.
Macro Risks of a US recession are receding (a little)
The rebound in long-term yields is hampering the exuberant rally in equities, but it bodes well for the future.
Macro Long-term bonds take a beating
Fitch’s surprise decision to cut US credit rating and robust indicators trigger bond market correction.
Macro Summer torpor takes hold of the markets
Sessions come and go, but a sideways trend has prevailed since the beginning of July.
Corporate H1 2023 Financial Results
Following the successful completion of our turnaround last year, we’re pleased to share our latest financial achievements with you today.
Macro “Time to stop tightening”, warns Mr. Market
Impatient central banks are exposing themselves to the increasingly obvious risk of overdose.
